Recent posts in two environment-related blogs I read, Green Inc. and Treehugger, illustrate exactly the type of project I would love to be associated with: Desertec, a German-led consortium of energy companies looking to capitalize on the vast quantities of solar energy available in the Sahara desert. Further, I was reminded of another incredible concept, the Sahara Forest Project, that connects the use of concentrated solar power plants and seawater greenhouses for agricultural projects. Many questions and concerns about the feasibility and effects of these pie-in-the-sky ideas immediately spring to mind. While I am no expert on energy and geopolitics, I’m going to take a stab at exploring the potential risks and rewards of these two projects in broad strokes.
As the title of this post illustrates, the basic ideas at stake - renewable energy, climate change mitigation, poverty-reduction/development assistance in the third world and a tangible and hopefully long-lasting mutually beneficial relationship between a variety of cultures - are dear to my heart and mind.
Climate change and global poverty are the two biggest challenges humankind faces in the 21st century, and they happen to be inextricably linked. As well summed up in this comment, from the Green Inc. post, sub-Saharan countries will bear a disproportionate share of the terrible effects of global warming. Snip:
The African continent is uniquely vulnerable to climate shifts because 70 per cent of its workers are employed on rain-fed, small-scale farms, and farming is often the engine for national economies, generating export earnings and inexpensive food. Agriculture is the backbone of local economies and GDP in a number of African countries. On average, the sector accounts for 21 per cent of GDP (ranging from 10 to 70 per cent). In some countries, scientists project that farmers will harvest just 50% of current yields by 2020.
Based on this dire forecast, let’s take a look at some of the perceived benefits of these two projects. Both Desertec and Sahara Forest want to use large Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) arrays, with some solar photovoltaic (PV) input to generate power in the sun-rich, population-scarce deserts of northern Africa. CSP is both an old and new concept: using curved or flat mirrors to concentrate the sun’s light on a single focal point, through which water or another liquid is heated to super-high temperatures and is then used as steam to turn turbines and thus create electricity. PVs are solar panels, made mostly of silicon (aka sand), another bountiful resource in the desert.
Obviously, the need for much of the world’s energy demand to shift to carbon-neutral sources is imperative if we are to avoid catastrophic climate change, which, despite a few loud and stubborn (but nonetheless disproved) voices, is no longer a debated issue. For what might happen in a “business as usual” situation, please see this post at Climate Progress.
With both the Desertec and Sahara Forest projects, demand for this renewable energy is perceived to come mostly from Europe. Indeed, Germany itself probably uses as much energy as the entire continent of Africa, and as European countries work to combat their greenhouse gas emissions, more and more demand for renewables will keep the market strong. However, as African countries themselves continue to develop and industrialize, their consumption of energy resources will rise considerably, especially when factoring in the expected rise in population (expected to be around 2.225 billion in 2050). Although much attention is currently being paid to the way China is or is not attempting to fuel much of their own development with so-called green energy, there is a distinct potential here for countries with few natural resources or fossil fuels such as oil or coal but lots of sun and open land to leapfrog dirty industrial development straight to limitless, clean and free energy.
So essentially what we get is clean energy for (initially) mostly European consumption, likely using the labor forces available in African countries. Here’s where things get sticky. The developed world’s record of interaction with most of Africa is abysmal. From the slave trade to colonization to apartheid to post-colonial political meddling and exploitation of natural resources by multinational corporations that has continued non-stop for hundreds of years and indeed right up to the present day, there is a serious gulf to be bridged in terms of trust and cooperation. While it is arguably true that most African countries are quite right to distrust any foreign energy schemes, it is also true that many of them are incapable or unwilling to develop on their own and are asking for aid trade with the international community. Corruption, bureaucracy and cultural or religious insularity could also hinder progress.
(I will leave aside for now the equally sticky issue of whether some countries should develop at all, or whether allowing some countries - Somalia comes to mind - to simply fester and possibly become havens for terrorist groups is an immediate security interest. I will say I am a firm supporter of a people’s right to self-determination, whether or not that leads to their own extinction or survival.)
Desertec seems to be aware of these issues. The very first of their Frequently Asked Questions list is the following:
Is this simply another way in which Europe will exploit Africa? What are the benefits for the MENA communities?
- The current situation is based on exploiting limited resources like gas and oil, but solar energy is practically unlimited and as such, the owners can’t be “exploited”.
- In the period up to 2050, the MENA Region could become as prosperous as Europe and urgently needs renewables for the generation of electricity and drinking water (considered in the TRANS-CSP study).
- Saving fossil fuels in the subsidized energy supply of African countries will allow selling the fuels more profitably on the world market.
- Earnings from export of electricity by using the unused potential of renewable energies.
- Jobs especially in the construction of solar collectors ==> income ==> building a middle class, instead of the emigration of well-qualified engineers.
- Consequences of climate change produced by Europe will hurt the MENA region first, so it’s only fair if Europe supports the introduction of renewables in MENA
- Technology transfer and development of training programs and studies for renewables in MENA is explicitly promoted by the European side in the framework of the Union for the Mediterranean
This answer isn’t especially explicit that “we will not exploit and plunder”, so as with all big agreements the details would have to be sussed out much further down the road. Furthermore, while the EU may be able to act in unison as an economic bloc, there is little reason to think that the northern African countries will also. Certainly they have their own problems, and if piecemeal agreements with different governments are not carefully crafted, there is a chance that a regional and/or local competition, say, in labor costs or environmental regulations or leases on tribal lands could lead to further strife.
What I’d hope is that agreements can be structured with long-term development in mind. That means training and employing local workers and contributing a good chunk of revenue to local economic development - meaning schools, hospitals, manufacturing, outsourced service centers (like the kind sprouting up all over India now and just starting in places like Rwanda, which I blogged about a while ago), agriculture and so on. It also means attention to the environment - so those high-voltage DC power lines will not be passing through villages and getting the locals killed, a la Shell Oil in Nigeria.
This is where I think the Sahara Forest project becomes quite interesting. While Desertec seems to be further along, likely because the SFP is a private enterprise as opposed to a EU-backed consortium, I love the idea of helping to increase the potential of the local agricultural economy, which is much closer to the traditions of the local people than manufacturing. The way it works is that the seawater used by the CSP arrays and greenhouses is purified in the process (through evaporation and filtration) and can then be used in orchards or jatropha plants (a native crop suitable for biofuel) nearby. As access to fresh water is also one of the paramount challenges of the 21st century, I see this as a triple solution. And that’s not factoring in any carbon-sequestration by the added forestation.
So while the concepts seem rosy, there are many barriers both real and perceived. These are summed up in this Treehugger post, and basically come down to this: it’s the political, not the technological challenges that stand in the way. North African countries are a long way from being considered “safe” places to invest the billions of dollars needed to get these projects up and running. Hell, we can’t even be sure our own unusually-progressive governmental majority can get a half-decent climate bill made into law.
What that means is that there’s time to wait, and for me, to plan. I see the destination, now I just gotta figure out how to get there.
